2025/06/19 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

It feels like price is heading toward the daily chart low at 193.3.
Watch out around 194, the key level just before that.
That’s around the tip of the long lower wick.

Scenario A
Since price has already touched 194 once, it could rise for a while and form a wave before dropping again.
In that case, for day trading I’m a buyer for now.
I’ll look for a pullback after price breaks above around 194.7.
Target is around 195.
There isn’t much room to run, so depending on how the chart shapes up, I might pass on it.

Scenario B
If price fails to break above 194.7, that looks like a good selling point.
I’ll wait for it to start turning down (making lower highs) at the range high, then go short.
Target is around 194.

Scenario C
The pattern where price keeps falling without a big bounce.
If it looks capped around 194.4–194.6, I’ll look to go short.
194 is the target, but I’d like to aim as far as 193.3 at most.

Review

Price rose as in Scenario A.

Early on I was looking to sell, but there was no timing to go short and price rose.
I went long on the pullback after the break to the upside.
The window here was only a moment, but it’s a point worth taking the risk to target.
Price broke through the target line right away, but with no pullback and strong momentum, I kept holding.
Take profit on reaching the line around 195.5. 58 pips
The rise from the entry point is Elliott wave 3, and given the size of the recent rally, it’s a good endpoint.
Time-wise, too, the UK interest rate decision was coming right after that.