2025/06/20 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Looking only at the 15-minute chart, it was in a selling setup until a moment ago, but it has broken out to the upside, so I’m waiting for a pullback.
On the 4-hour chart, it looks like a small pullback in the middle of a clean rise off support/resistance (S/R).

Scenario A
Aim for the pullback after it breaks the recent high.
It’s unclear whether it will bounce at line A or pull back to around B, so I’ll decide based on how the chart shapes up.
Target is around 146.4

Scenario B
In the short term it has turned up, so wait for a pullback and go long.
On the 15-minute level, the 145.55 high will act as resistance, so be careful.
The 1-hour MA is also hanging right over price at the moment.
Target is 145.7, but if it breaks above that, around 146.4.

Scenario C
If it drops, I’ll still view it as a buy until it breaks below 145, but in the short term it has turned into a sell.
I’ll take quick, short shorts, and if it reverses, I’ll look to go long again.
If it keeps falling and breaks below 145, I’ll look for selling the rally.
Target is around 144.6

Review

This was a buy under Scenario B.
Price was turning up (making higher lows) on the 5-minute chart (M5), and I went long at ○1, when the downward flow stopped.
I held after that, then took profit when price reacted at the 145.9 line and formed something like a double top. 53 pips
If it weren’t the weekend, this would have been a spot where you could move the stop-loss level to breakeven and hold overnight.

If you couldn’t get in at ○1, a long from ○2 under Scenario A was also fine.
The take profit timing here is the same too. 30 pips