2025/06/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

It’s ranging, and at a glance it’s hard to tell what’s going on.
The daily chart still can’t get above the key level, so the chart has no clear direction as a result.
That said, the 1-hour chart is rising, so I’ll be looking to buy.

Scenario A
The line around 145 is a key level on the daily chart, so if price breaks through it, I feel it could extend to around 146.4.
However, false breakouts at daily key levels can be large, so watch out for moves where it looks like it broke out and then quickly comes back.
After the breakout, I’ll wait for a clear reaction at S/R before going long.
Target is around 146

Scenario B
It’s not really a setup I can buy right now, but I think the bottom of the range is around here.
It looks like it’ll take some time before a buyable setup forms from here, and there are a lot of data releases tonight, so this scenario seems unlikely.

Scenario C
If price breaks below around 144.5, I’ll look to sell the rally.
This seems like a likely flow.
Target is around 144.2

Review

No opportunities today.
Technically, you could go long from the red circle, but there was a data release, after all.