2025/06/10 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price has broken out of the range, and I’m waiting for a pullback.
Line A, which acts as support/resistance (S/R) on the 1-hour chart (H1), is a candidate for the pullback, but given the size of the current rally it’s a bit shallow, so be careful.
It’s also a key level on the daily chart, so it could end with price forming an upper wick, dropping, and the whole move turning out to be a false breakout.

Scenario A
Buying the dip from the line around 145.
As I wrote at the start, I need to confirm whether this line really holds, so I’ll consider a long after price reacts to the line a few times.
Target is around 145.9

Scenario B
It would be more natural for price to come down to around here before rising.
I see the price zone from the recent high at 144.8 down to around 144.6 as a pullback candidate.
Target is around 145.1.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the recent low, I’ll look to sell.
I’m picturing a double top forming on the 4-hour level, with the target around 144, where the neckline is.

Price has been dropping while I’ve been writing this, so I guess Scenario B is the base case.

Review

Going with Scenario B, I went long at the red circle.
However, price barely rose before dropping.
I got stopped out when it broke the recent low. -10pips
Since it hardly moved up at all, a breakeven exit wasn’t really possible either.

Normally, the point where the reason for buying breaks down is the pullback low, which is far below at around 144.4. But the stop-loss level would be very far away, and once price breaks the recent low, it forms a short-term downward wave, so it will either fall further or move into a range.
Its position on the 1-hour chart wasn’t a clean pullback either.
In cases like this, I cut the loss first and then wait for the next opportunity.

After that, there were no real opportunities to speak of.