2025/06/02 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

The USD/JPY trade strategy for 2025/06/02 is to sell.

June is underway.
The monthly chart is still a buy, while the weekly chart is a sell and the daily chart is a sell as well.
On the monthly chart, May technically closed as a bullish candle, but it left a fairly long upper wick and is starting to look capped by the MA.
This month, the key question is whether price breaks through support and heads lower.

Both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are sells, so for day trading I’ll be looking for short entries.

Scenario A
If price breaks above 144.2, I’ll look for buying the dip, but it may not go up smoothly.
Target is around 144.7

Scenario B
Selling from the range high.
On the current chart, it looks like price may break below the range.
If it rises from here, it will have made a short-term bullish shift, so if you sell with Scenario B, be careful not to end up countertrend trading.
Price is forming a bit of a wave, so it could also drop from around 143.6 without retracing all the way to the range high.
Target is around 143

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
The target is likewise around 143, but I’d like to aim for around 142.2.

Review

There was no entry point matching what I pictured in the scenario.

As I briefly mentioned in Scenario B, price failed to break the 15-minute rally high and dropped again.
If you were watching from that perspective, you could go short at ○1.
The MA was capping price from above, and it was the moment price was making lower highs.
After that, it kept falling without any bounce off the lines, so take profit once downside stalling shows up after the target is reached. 70 pips

After that came a data release, so I’d wait and see. The red ○ late at night is a valid entry technically, but I don’t enter at that hour.