2025/05/26 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

The USD/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/26 is to sell.

To sum up the market context: the monthly chart is on the verge of a bearish shift, the weekly chart is bearish, the daily chart is right at its pullback low, the 4-hour is bearish, and the 1-hour is bearish.
Given the weekly chart, I picture this as a week where price falls to the recent low, but a bounce off the daily pullback low is also possible at this point.
If price breaks below the current chart level, the daily chart will turn bearish too.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the line around 142.95, which I see as the current range high, I’ll look to buy for a day trade.
Target is around 143.5.

Scenario B
Sell from the range high.
Price could also drop without fully retracing to the range high, so I want to watch closely.
Target is around 141

Scenario C
Sell on a break below.
This is a key level on the daily chart, so watch out for a false breakout.
Even when price has clearly broken below on the 15-minute chart, it can suddenly spike back up.
Target is also around 141

Review

No trade.
I was waiting with Scenario B in mind, but there were no opportunities during the day.

At circle ①, you could go long for a short-term move, but it would be more of a scalping trade.
If you really need to make money, getting in and taking profits in spots like this is an option, but the expectancy isn’t high.

Circle ② is the Scenario B entry point I had been waiting for all along.
Had I shorted from here, I would have caught the drop down to the lower end of the range the next morning, but I don’t hold shorts overnight, since they can get stopped out when spreads widen around dawn.