2025/05/22 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
The USD/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/22: sell
The market context is similar to GBP/JPY, but it’s a sell.
For now, there aren’t many reasons to buy.
Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink line around 144.2, it’s a buy.
Watching out for a false breakout, I’ll look to buy the dip.
Target is around 145.
Scenario B
Selling the rally from around the range high.
I’ll wait for a reaction at either the blue line B around 144 or the pink line above it, then go short.
However, there’s a high chance it’s in a short-term uptrend, so be careful with entry timing.
Target is around 143
Scenario C
If price comes back from the current shape, line C isn’t a rally high, but a pattern where it forms a double top at this line and heads lower is also possible.
In that case, the risk-reward is pretty good.
Target is around 142.5.
Review
I was waiting with Scenario C in mind, but price then made another new low and formed a range.
You can go short at ◯1, the range high.
It doesn’t reach the target and bounces off the blue line one level up at 142.9, so I take profit there. 35 pips
This is a 4-hour support level, so it’s a price zone where a bounce wouldn’t be surprising.
After that, price rises and makes a bullish shift.
You can go long at ◯2, the pullback after the bullish shift.
However, since it’s right before a data release and it’s starting to look like a double top, I take profit early. 25 pips
Then, once the price action from the data release has settled down, I go long again at ◯3, which is both a pullback and a support/resistance (S/R) level.
It’s late at night, so watching the chart the whole time is tough, but price makes a new high just after 1 am JST (16:00 UTC the previous day).
Once you confirm that, move your stop-loss level to breakeven, set a limit order at the target pink line at 144.2, and go to bed.
This time it kept running, so you can get around 30 pips.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
