2025/05/23 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

The USD/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/23 is to sell.

The chart has just broken below the C line, but before the break I was viewing it as a buy, just barely.
Now that it has broken below and the 15-minute chart (M15) candle is about to close, I see it as a sell.
From here I’m looking to sell the rally.
Yesterday printed a bullish candle on the daily chart, so if today is also bullish, a sharp rebound could come at some point.
I need to trade while keeping that kind of market context in mind.

Scenario A
There is still room for upside on the 1-hour chart (H1) as well, so if price rebounds somewhere and breaks higher, I’ll treat it as a bullish shift.
However, the key level is the pink horizontal line at 144.2, just above the letter A.
The idea is to get in early on a short-term bullish shift, assuming price will go on to clear the pink line too.
Target is around 145.

Scenario B
Selling the rally after the current drop.
If price retraces back into the range, the risk-reward improves.
I’ll wait for an entry opportunity near the range high.
Target is around 143.3

Scenario C
Selling the rally at support/resistance (S/R).
It’s not a spot where I’ve drawn a horizontal line, but if price reacts at S/R, I’ll go short.
This is a setup where the trends on the 4-hour, 1-hour chart (H1) and 15-minute chart (M15) all line up.
Target is likewise around 143.3

Review

Early on, I was waiting for a retracement based on Scenario C, but price didn’t pull back much and dropped instead.
The next entry opportunity after that is a short from circle ①.
In terms of risk-reward, it’s just barely worth taking.
From there, it’s either take profit when price reaches the 143.3 target line, or hold in hopes of a further drop, accepting that it may end in a breakeven exit.
If you took profit, it was about 13 pips.

After that, when price made a new low and came back up, I was patiently waiting for a chance to get in short, but it dropped sharply, perhaps due to fundamentals or something.
In the middle of the sharp drop, you can enter short at circle ②, where there’s a brief S/R flip bounce on the 5-minute chart (M5).
You can’t get in unless you were watching the market with a “sell only” mindset before that point.
After that, take profit where it looked like the decline stalled at the round number of 142.5. 53 pips