2025/06/11 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.
Since the end of last week, price has been battling over whether it will break above the daily chart key level.
The range is getting narrower too, so rather than fiddling around on the lower timeframes, it seems better to look at the bigger picture.
Scenario A
If price breaks above the resistance around 145, I’ll be buying the dip.
I’ll wait for a pullback after a 1-hour chart (H1) candle body has clearly closed above it.
Target is around 145.9
Scenario B
I see the current range low as somewhere between 144.5 and 144.6, and if the range low looks solid, I’ll buy.
By “looks solid” I mean that when price drops this far, it has made a short-term bearish shift, so the idea is to wait for at least a double bottom on the 15-minute chart before getting in.
Scenario C
If price breaks below, I’ll be selling the rally.
In this pattern, it feels like the 4-hour chart would also be entering a range.
The target is around 144, the rough range low.
Review
In the end, the punchline was that price couldn’t get past the daily chart resistance around 145.
However, on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts it clearly broke above resistance, so for day trading the plan is to look for longs, expecting follow-through.
The first red circle is a buy off support/resistance (S/R) after the break above the key level.
Here, price came down with an obvious turn down (making lower highs) and an upper wick, so it was a breakeven exit.
After that, price turned up (making higher lows) again and broke above resistance, so I went long from a small pullback on the 5-minute chart (M5) level.
It didn’t reach the target, but since it printed a long upper wick at the horizontal level and the data release time was approaching, I closed out. 17 pips
After that, it’s wait and see.
Technically you could short from the retracement around 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC), but when volatility gets extremely large like this and price is just going there and back, I think it’s fine to stay on the sidelines.
The best entry point was around the blue circle near dawn.
Though you can’t really take a short right before the spread widens.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
