2025/06/04 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
The USD/JPY trade strategy for 2025/06/04 is to buy.
Right now, price is being held back by a key level on the 4-hour chart.
Technically it’s a buy, but a break below Line C followed by a drop is a very real possibility.
Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the range.
Initial target is around 144.5–144.7.
Scenario B
Buying the dip from the range low.
I see the range low around Line C at 143.65.
If it looks like it’s holding firm, I’ll buy.
Scenario C
If price breaks below Line C, I see it as a sell.
The target is 143.3, but ideally 143.
If the decline stops at 143.3, I have a feeling it will turn into a range or consolidation.
Review
The first blue circle is Scenario B, but it’s a hard place to buy.
The long upper wick just before it bothers me, so I’d stay wary of a drop.
After that, you can go long from the small pullback after the break to the upside. This is the entry point I had in mind for Scenario A.
However, price loses momentum and falls back before reaching the target, so it’s an exit. 15 pips
After that, the chart has changed from the morning scenario, but you can go long again from circle 2.
In this price zone, it’s always about buying and timing the entry.
The idea is to buy once the lows start turning up (making higher lows).
However, it doesn’t extend fully, so I exit before the data release just after 9 pm JST (12:00 UTC). 30 pips
If it weren’t for the data release at 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC), the blue circle would be a place to go short.
Even with a release, price often moves in line with the technicals like this.
But the risk of volatility suddenly spiking and shaking you out is high, so it’s better to wait and see.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
