2025/06/26 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Today looks like a turning point: will the daily chart also turn lower, or will price hold its ground here?
For day trading, I’m looking to sell for now.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink line around 145.3, I’ll look to buy the dip.
Target is around 145.9.
In the lightly shaded zone, both selling and buying are possible, depending on how the chart looks at the time.

Scenario B
I think this area is the ideal retracement level to sell into.
Target is around 144.5–144.6. If price breaks below that, I’ll aim for around 144.

Scenario C
On the chart I’m treating the pink line at 144.6 as support, but if selling, I think it’s better to wait until price also breaks below the blue line just beneath it, around 144.5.
Target is around 144.

Review

It was a short under Scenario C.
The short came off the pink line S/R after price broke below the blue line.
Price broke through the 144 target and kept falling, so I held, then took profit once it started turning up (making higher lows). 60 pips

Selling from around the blue circle early on, judging it as Scenario B, is also a valid option.
The stop-loss level ends up farther away, so it comes down to the risk-reward.