2025/06/25 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price has been falling without forming any waves, but the move is finally starting to stall.
Will this become a pause before another leg down, or will it reverse from here? For now, it’s still a sell.

Scenario A
If price breaks firmly above the green line at 145, I’ll look for buying the dip.
Unless it gets above 145, there’s currently zero reason to buy.
Target is around 145.8.

Scenario B
Sellers have the upper hand in the current range.
If price can’t get above the range high, I’ll sell.
Near-term target is the range low, around 144.5.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the range.
It’s a hard setup to set a clear target for.
Near-term target is around 144.

Review

It was Scenario A.
After the break above 145, I entered on the 5-minute chart (M5) level support/resistance (S/R) plus higher lows.
Price went straight up, and I took profit when the move stalled at the 145.8 line I had targeted. 70 pips

Going for a short from the small retracement around 2 am JST (17:00 UTC the previous day) is a valid option.