2025/07/03 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Short term it’s currently a sell, but I’m viewing the 1-hour chart (H1) as a buy.
And the 4-hour chart is a sell. The market context is still difficult, so this is a time to trade carefully.

Scenario A
If price breaks above around 143.7, I think it’s fair to see it as rising for now.
I’d like to look for a long from a pullback.
The target is 144.2, but if the 4-hour chart turns down, there’s also a possible pattern where price stalls around 144 and then drops, so watch out for the blue line at 144.

Scenario B
Right now the 15-minute chart (M15) is a sell.
I see the range high as the pink line at 143.6–143.7.
As long as price doesn’t break above the pink line, I’m looking to sell.
However, there’s constant buying pressure in the price zone that forms the pullback low on the 1-hour chart (H1).
If you can’t react flexibly, I think it’s fine to skip this price zone.
Target is 143.3

Scenario C
I see the 1-hour chart (H1) support line as the pink line around 143.4.
If price breaks below it, I’ll go for selling the rally.
Target is around 143.
There’s still a chance of a rise off the daily chart support, so I can’t chase it too far.

Review

Scenario A, a buy.

I went long at the red circle, the pullback after price broke above the range high.
It looked like it would rise smoothly, but things started to look shaky, so I took profit when it formed a double top. 20 pips

After that there were no real opportunities, and with NFP (nonfarm payrolls) coming up in the evening, I called it a day early.