2025/07/04 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The overall market is rising, but the near term favors selling.
The strategy is to catch the drop as price moves down to form a 4-hour pullback.

Scenario A
Basically, I want to ride the buying flow once price turns up at some point.
Based on the current chart, I’d like to buy the pullback after price breaks above the pink line around 144.6.
Target is around the recent high of 145.1.

Scenario B
For now it’s a sell, so if you’re aiming to sell the rally, it’s Scenario B.
Target is around 144.2, a candidate for the pullback low.
Even if it falls further, take profit with a limit order at the blue line at 144 below that.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the blue line at 144, look to sell the rally.
In this flow, I’ll start considering the possibility that the 4-hour uptrend breaks down as well.
Target is 143.4

Review

There was no opportunity that matched the morning strategy.

You could go long from the red circle, where the drop stopped at the pink line and bounced.
Take profit where it stalled at the next blue line up. 19pips