2025/07/08 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

This chart is easier to read than GBP/JPY.
I think it’s one of two options: either it bounces from around the current price, or it bounces from the range low around 145.9.

Scenario A
The yellow line is a key level on the weekly chart.
In other words, price is currently in a price zone that acts as resistance, so watch out for false breakouts and sharp drops.
Keeping that in mind, if it makes a new high, I want to look for buying the dip.
Target is 146.9

Scenario B
Go long once it turns up (making higher lows) within the current range.
The current chart position does look like a good spot for a bounce.
It’s been turning down (making lower highs) in the short term, so I’ll wait a bit longer.
Initial target is the recent high at the yellow line, 146.4

Scenario C
If it breaks below the range, I’ll follow it with a sell.
A bit of a drop would actually make it easier to catch the next move up.
Target is around 145.3

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

The first opportunity was ○1.
It’s a buy from support/resistance (S/R), set against the recent double bottom.
Price makes a slight adverse move after entry, but the stop-loss level is around the blue marker, and the market context gives no reason to exit early, so I hold.
After that, price keeps making higher lows, so you just leave it alone.

If you’re joining from the European session, you can go long from ○2.
It’s a long based on price turning up (making higher lows) within the range plus a short-term pullback low.

Price quickly breaks through the range high of 146.4, which was the target in Scenario B, so I hold toward 146.9, the target I wrote for Scenario A.
Take profit once momentum fades on the line touch. 80 pips