2025/07/09 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The market still doesn’t have many reasons to sell.
But it’s in a range, so I can’t buy right now.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the range.
I’m seeing the current range high at around 147, and above that there’s no notable resistance.
Target is 147.5

Scenario B
Buying from the range low.
The range low is a bit unclear.
I’m treating the yellow line at 146.4 as the low, but I’m considering the price zone shaded in red as a support band.
Target is the range high at 147

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the range.
I’m picturing a move down to the 4-hour pullback low, with a target of 146

Review

The price action didn’t match the scenario.

I was waiting and seeing with Scenario A in mind, but a bearish shift came before any setup formed that I could buy into.

After that, I went short from the red circle, the retracement after the break below.
I took profit when price reached the yellow line, where a bounce was possible. 28 pips