2025/07/10 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

I see the blue line at 145.5 as a key level. Whether price bounces from here or drops another leg is the key point today.
I expect the daily chart to print another bearish candle, following yesterday’s.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the yellow line at 146.4, I’ll switch to a bullish bias for day trading.
That would mean the 4-hour uptrend continues, so we might be able to aim for around 148.
The near-term target for day trading is around 147.5

Scenario B
This is a pattern where price ranges at the current level and then drops.
The range high is the yellow line, but I’m also allowing for a move where price pulls back up to around 146.2 and then falls.
Target is 145.1

Scenario C
Even if price breaks below from here, I’ll wait for a pullback to the blue line for the time being.
Target is also 145.1

Review

It was an indecisive day.

The first one, ○1, was a short from Scenario B.
Once price climbs up to this price zone, buying and selling get mixed in the short term, so the golden rule is to wait for price to come as close to the range high as possible before entering.
At ○1, price moved as if it might break through to the upside, then started turning down (making lower highs) and came back into the range.

I took profit here for now, as price failed to break the recent low and started rising again. 20 pips

After that I waited and saw, and the next trade was a long from ○2, the pullback after price broke above the range.
It extended briefly, so I held, but it soon dropped sharply.
The trend on the 5-minute chart (M5) also broke down, so I exited with a small profit. 7 pips