2025/07/11 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price has risen so easily that it makes you wonder what yesterday’s move was all about.
At this point, I’ll wait until it forms a wave first.

Scenario A
A long aiming for an S/R flip at the recent high.
However, since price has surged, the stop-loss level will be far away.
I’ll decide on entry while considering the risk-reward.
Specifically, rather than entering on the first touch, I’ll confirm the strength of the S/R on the lower timeframe before getting in.
The target is around 147 for now, so this isn’t a scenario where I need to rush into an entry.

Scenario B
Aiming for a somewhat deeper pullback against the current rally.
It’s a bit deep, but if price stops at the current level and comes down, it’s a nice line in Fibonacci terms.
The target is likewise around 147

Scenario C
The zone from B to C is basically a buy area, but it’s a price zone I’d rather not touch much.
If price breaks below it, I’ll look to sell.
The initial target is around the recent low of 145.9.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

Price broke through 147 after I wrote the morning scenario, so I waited with the idea of buying a pullback and targeting the next line above.
The area in the blue box was a short-term bearish shift, so I couldn’t touch that zone.
After that, price made a new high again, so I went long from the red circle, which was the pullback for that move.

I took profit as price touched the green line at 147.5 and turned down. 55 pips
Since it made a new high, holding was also an option, but it was late Friday night, so I didn’t get greedy and closed out.
I would never hold a position over the weekend.