2025/07/15 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The market context favors buying, but it doesn’t feel like price is going to keep climbing steadily.
I guess the data release tonight will push it one way or the other.

Scenario A
Price rises from the current shallow pullback.
If it breaks above, I’ll look to buy the pullback.
Target is around 148.1

Scenario B
I see the lower edge of the current range around 147.5, the green line.
Right now the 15-minute chart (M15) is turning down (making lower highs), so it’s a sell in the short term.
If that short-term selling structure breaks down, I’ll consider a buy entry.
The 1-hour MA is sitting at a level where it could act as support, so price might also rise from here without dropping any further.
Target is the recent high at 147.9

Scenario C
If it breaks below, I’ll be selling the rally.
First target is around 147.2.
Depending on how things develop, I’d like to aim for around 147.

Review

It turned out to be Scenario B.

It was the “rise without falling any further” pattern I wrote about in the morning strategy.
○1 is where the price stopped falling and showed signs of reversing.
Going long from here is the best entry.
Since it breaks above the recent high, the textbook move is to hold, but I close out once ahead of the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC). 26pips

After that, it’s a long from ○2 on the support/resistance (S/R) flip at the recent high line, which is Scenario A.
I thought that even if it rose, it would only go up to around 148.6, the yellow line marking a key level on the weekly chart, but it kept rising without forming a pullback.
I take profit where the momentum faded at the 149 yen line. 90pips