2025/07/16 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

It’s stuck in an awkward range, but I’m looking to buy until the yellow line breaks.
This isn’t a situation where you need to rush into a trade.

Scenario A
If it breaks to the upside, I expect another leg up and will look at buying the dip.
Target is around 149.4
Unless the pullback after the breakout is a bit deep, the risk-reward might not be great.

Scenario B
A long from within the current range.
It’s been dropping recently, but once this decline stops, I’ll look to go long.
However, if it breaks below around 148.7 and falls to the yellow line around 148.5, it’s turned bearish in the short term, so I want to wait patiently for the right timing.
Target is 149.4

Scenario C
If it breaks below the yellow line, I’ll look at selling the rally.
Target is around 148.2

Review

No trade

There’s a small retracement at the red circle, but it’s only visible on the 1-minute chart, so it would be hard to enter from there.
You couldn’t get in unless you were already confident in the drop and waiting for it.