2025/07/18 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

For USD/JPY today, I’m leaning toward buying for now.

Price has reached a key level on the weekly chart, and movement has stalled.
On the 1-hour chart (H1), it’s hard to tell whether it’s heading up or down. In the short term, it’s a buy for now.

Scenario A
I’m picturing buying the dip after a proper break to the upside.
By “proper,” I mean clear enough to see even on the 1-hour chart (H1).
This is a tricky price zone, so be careful not to rush into an entry and get whipsawed.
Target is 149.1

Scenario B
Going long from a pullback within the range.
The basic idea is to buy near the line, but the bullish bias stays intact until the recent low breaks.
The target is also 149.1, but price may fail to get past the recent high price zone around 148.8.
Since this is a move within the range, don’t get greedy and hold; it’s better to take profit as soon as the price action changes.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after the recent low breaks.
Here too, I’m picturing a short based on the yellow line.
The target is hard to pin down.
The lower line is around 148.2, so maybe somewhere around there.

Somehow, this isn’t a market that makes me want to trade very aggressively.

Review

No trade.
The market didn’t move the way I had pictured.

On a short-term bias, a short from the red circle aiming for the range low is a valid option.
But it’s right in the middle of the range and the risk-reward isn’t that great either, so I feel there’s no need to force it.

If you were thinking of going long from the blue circle, that’s a bit early.
At this point the short-term flow is to the downside, so you need to wait a little longer for the setup to form.