2025/07/21 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

As with last week, the question is whether price will break through the key level on the weekly chart.
On the 4-hour chart (H4) and lower timeframes, price is drifting around with no clear direction, but if anything it looks more likely to drop.

Scenario A
If price breaks the recent high, I’ll see it as rising again.
I’m picturing a pullback to around the yellow line at 148.5, then aiming for the range high.
Target is 149

Scenario B
The upper limit for a retracement is around the yellow line.
If price comes back up to around there, I’ll look to sell.
Target is 147.7

Scenario C
The current range on the 4-hour chart (H4) is split into upper and lower tiers.
If price breaks below the blue line at 148.2, I’ll take it as moving into the lower tier and look to sell the rally.
Target is 147.7

Review

It played out as Scenario C.

Short at ○1, the retracement after the low was broken.
Quick take profit once the target was reached. 48 pips

In the end, price kept extending, but this wasn’t a spot to hold, so I think taking profit was fine.

After that, you could short at ○2, the retracement after a further drop.
You could hold this one, but since we were heading into the late-night hours, I took profit when price bounced a little off the recent low. 25 pips