2025/07/24 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.
The uptrend on the daily chart may have broken down too.
Right now the price is at an awkward spot to start selling, so I’m waiting for a retracement.
Scenario A
If it breaks above the yellow line at 146.4, I’ll consider the uptrend resuming.
On a day-trading level, I’ll wait for a pullback and look to buy.
Target: 147
Scenario B
I see the retracement zone at around 146.2–146.4.
If it rallies from the current shape, I think it will form a short-term uptrend, so I’ll wait for that uptrend to break down before going short.
Target: 145.5
Scenario C
If it drops without much of a retracement, I’ll look for a support/resistance (S/R) flip at the blue line at 145.9.
In this case too, the target is around 145.5
Review
It played out as Scenario A.
The short-term rise kept going and broke straight through the high, and I went long at the red circle, the pullback after that breakout.
Price broke above the high again, but I exited when it broke below the pink line. 20 pips
I closed out because a data release was coming up.
Without something like that, this would have been a spot to hold.
Note that by the light blue circle, the short-term trend had already made a bullish shift, so a strategy of aiming for the light blue line, the 1-hour rally high, is valid.
However, considering a short from the high just before that blue circle is a bit early.
The short I wrote as Scenario B is a short after the short-term rise breaks down, meaning I would go short if the chart moved like the light red line I drew.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
