2025/07/25 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price has started rising again from the pullback low on the daily chart.
The 4-hour chart (H4) also looks like it has turned to a buy, but this is still an area where selling could come in.

Scenario A
Until price breaks above the green line around 147.5, we need to be prepared for selling based on that neckline.
A break above the green line would also mean clearing the neckline of the H4 double top formed by the Jul 16 drop.
If it breaks above, I’ll keep buying.
Target is around 148

Scenario B
Rather than rising in a straight line from here, it would be more natural to form a small pullback and then rise.
From a day-trading perspective, the pullback candidate is the blue line around 147.1–147.2.
The target is the same as Scenario A, but we also need to consider a scenario where price fails to break through the green line.

Scenario C
If it breaks below around 147, sell.
Target is around 146.7

Review

No trade.

With this kind of price action, there’s really no good place to get in.
The only move you could have taken this day was the rise at 9:30 am JST (00:30 UTC).

The light blue circle is where I’d look to buy, but it was right before a data release, so I couldn’t touch it.