2025/07/29 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price has reached a key level on the weekly chart and looks like it’s about to form a double top on the daily chart.
At the day-trading level, I already see this as a bearish shift.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the yellow line, I’ll view it as a continuation of buying, but that’s the price zone that would mark the daily high.
I need to stay flexible so I don’t end up buying the top.
Target is around 149

Scenario B
I see the market as having just made a bearish shift.
I’d like to actively target the first retracement.
I’m looking at the yellow line, or the round number below it around 148.5, as the retracement high area.
Target is 148.1

Scenario C
Even if price keeps falling from here, I think it will form a retracement somewhere, so I’ll wait for that.
Basically, my guide will be horizontal levels I’ve already drawn from the past, or places that have recently acted as support/resistance (S/R) where I can draw a line on the lower timeframes.
Target is likewise 148.1

Review

It was Scenario C.

After the break to the downside, I went short at the red circle on the retracement.
I took profit as price bounced after reaching the blue target line. 16 pips