2025/07/30 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price has broken below the blue line, but it’s still a range.
I’m waiting for a retracement, so this is the time to see where the short-term rise stalls.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the yellow line, it will make another run at the daily chart high.
Target: 149

Scenario B
Selling the rally against the current decline.
The zone to watch is somewhere between the 15-minute chart (M15) S/R around 148.3 and the blue line at 148.2.
The blue line is a key level I’d been watching on the 4-hour chart, and since price has broken below it, another possible scenario is that price gets rejected at the blue line a few times and then drops.
If selling from the blue line, waiting for a double top to form is a prerequisite.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the pink line, there will be almost no reason left to buy.
This might be the easiest pattern to enter.
Target: 147.6

Review

It was Scenario B.

Short at ○1, where price fails to break above the blue line, forms a double top and drops.
However, it can’t break below the recent low and comes back up, so I exit. 18 pips

After that, price rises and makes a bullish shift, so long at ○2.
But here I close out before the data release. 15 pips

No more opportunities after that.
A spot like the blue ○ is a place where you could look for another short.
However, the daily chart is rising and some traders see this area as the pullback low of the 4-hour uptrend, so it would be a short taken with the possibility of price turning back up from here in mind.