2025/07/31 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price has been dropping in the short term, so this is a spot where you could go after the move down to 148.7.
That said, the overall trend is up, so I think it’s better to wait for downside stalling and look for a long.

Scenario A
If price rallies sharply from here, wait for a pullback and go long.
This is unlikely, and by the time price breaks above the high, market conditions will probably have changed, and so will the strategy.
Target is around 150

Scenario B
A long based on the assumption that the current drop stops around the 1-hour pullback low.
Price is falling in the short term, so make sure to wait for downside stalling before entering.
The 1-hour MA is rising from below, so a pattern where price is supported by the MA and moves up also looks possible.
Target is 149.5

Scenario C
If the pullback low breaks, switch to shorts.
I’m treating the pink line around 148.7 as the pullback low, but the yellow line below also looks like it could act as support, so I think it’s best to trade with caution.
Target is 148.2

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

Long from ○1, where price formed a double bottom at the pink line (the pullback low) and started turning up.
After that it rallied sharply, so I took profit when it reached the 150 target. 103 pips

In the end, it went even further if you had held, but I closed out before the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).
Whether the data sends price up or down is a gamble, so I think it’s fine to wait for the result and then re-enter.

If you couldn’t get in at ○1, entering from ○2 under Scenario A works too.