2025/08/08 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today’s USD/JPY is, quite simply, a range.

The 4-hour chart is heading down, but price is sitting on daily chart support, so it’s a tough one to trade.
If I trade it, there are only two choices: buy from the range low or sell from the range high.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the recent high, but in this case it depends on how the chart shapes up.
It’s not a situation where I want to buy aggressively.
That’s because even if price breaks above the recent high, it’s still within the range.
In a ranging market, the standard approach is to identify the range high and range low and trade from both ends.
If buying, the target is around 148.

Scenario B
I see the range low as the pink line at 146.7.
If price starts turning up (making higher lows) around there, I’d like to buy.
Target is 147.5.

On the current chart, price is reacting at the blue line, so if it starts turning up as shown by the faint arrow, a short-term buy might be worth considering.
The idea is to ride it up to the range high.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the range.
This is also a borderline spot for selling aggressively.
This price zone is already a daily chart support zone, so it’s not a clear-cut selling situation.
I’ll watch how the chart shapes up and sell if the risk-reward looks good.
Target is 146.4.

Review

Scenario B, I think?

As I wrote in Scenario B, price rose from the blue line.
The range high wasn’t very clear, so I was using the pink line around 147.6 as a rough guide, but price pushed a little beyond it, and I took profit as it was losing momentum around 147.8. 55 pips

Strictly speaking, market conditions had changed since I set the strategy in the morning, and this trade came after I had rebuilt the strategy.
So this one is not counted.