2025/08/12 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

This looks like it might have turned into a pullback on the daily chart.
Right now it’s coming down in the short term, so I’ll wait for downside stalling before taking action.
Even if I take a position, I’ll close out before the CPI release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).

Scenario A
This scenario is to go long on the support/resistance (S/R) flip after a break of the current 15-minute range.
The yellow line just above will act as resistance, so expect some closing out around that line.
If I go long, I want to properly wait for a pullback.
Target: 148.8

Scenario B
A long from the range low.
For now, this looks like the most likely flow.
I see the range low around the blue line at 148.2.
If price shows downside stalling around there, I’ll consider an entry.
Target: 148.5

Scenario C
If price breaks below the blue line, I’ll switch to a bearish bias.
On the 1-hour chart it hasn’t made a bearish shift, but I expect a move one step lower into a range.
Target: 147.9

Review

It was Scenario B.

Long from circle ①, where higher lows start to form near the blue line.
I hold, but take profit where price stalls around the 148.5 target. 20 pips

After that, you can short at circle ②, selling the rally after the drop on the data release.
This is selling the rally after the touch of 147.9 that I wrote about in Scenario C, so I aim for the pink line at 147.6, one level lower.
Take profit when the target is reached. 65 pips

The daily and 4-hour charts are in a pullback within an uptrend, so I don’t chase it any further.