2025/08/11 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

On the daily chart, price has reached an area where momentum is likely to start fading soon.
Right now it’s ranging on the 1-hour chart, but it’s a bit hard to call the direction, so I’d like to wait for one more wave.

Scenario A
If it breaks to the upside, I’ll look at buying the dip, but the daily key level is right above at the green line, 199.
This is a line price has failed to break since late July, so it’s hard to imagine it clearing it easily from here.
In cases like this, the breakout often comes from a big move driven by fundamentals, so maybe tomorrow’s UK data will move it.
For now the target is 199, and there isn’t much room to run. That’s the point.

Scenario B
I think the 1-hour range is around the pink line, 198.4.
It broke slightly below this morning, but that was a brief move first thing on Monday morning after the weekend, so I see it as an overshoot.
If the pink line continues to hold firm, I’d like to buy, but short-term it feels like it’s turning down (making lower highs), so I’ll wait carefully for the right timing.
Target is 199

Scenario C
If it breaks below the pink line again, I’ll judge it as a sell.
I’ll wait for a retracement and then go short, target 198

Review

It was Scenario B.

Price moved within the range the whole time and only broke out at the very end.
Early on, it dropped sharply from the range high.
At this point I’d think it might be a bearish shift, so I’d wait and see.

After that, price returned to the range high again, so aiming for a short from the range high is also an option.
Then the move stalled near the Scenario B line.
Price tried to break below the pink line three times, but on the third attempt it made higher lows, so at this point you can judge that “it’s not going down” and go long from the red circle.

Once you’ve seen it rise a fair amount after entry, you could move your stop-loss level to breakeven, set your limit at the 199 target, and close the chart.
Take profit when the target is reached. 57 pips