2025/08/05 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Every timeframe is pointing to selling, and there’s almost nothing supporting a long.
However, price is forming a double bottom at the blue line at 195, so I need to be careful with timing.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink line at 195.5, which I’m treating as the current range high, I expect a move up for now.
I see the area around 195.9, marked with the light red marker, as the retracement target, so the plan is to catch the rise up to there.

Scenario B
A short from within the current range.
Ideally I’d like to wait until price comes up close to the pink line at 195.5 before entering, but since a double bottom is forming below, I’ll only enter after confirming that the pink line is holding firm.
I’d like to aim for around 194.1. The first target is 194.5.

Scenario C
A short targeting a support/resistance (S/R) flip after a break below the range.
The targets are the same as in Scenario B.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

Early on, I was waiting for the right timing to sell the rally, but price never broke below the blue marker area, where the short-term uptrend would have failed, and it ended up rising.
I then went long at the red circle, the first pullback after that, as planned in Scenario A.

After that, price didn’t stop at the red target line and kept rising, so I held.
I took profit when it stalled at the next line up and started coming down. 62 pips