2025/07/30 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Still in a range. The textbook play is to wait for a retracement and sell from the top of the range.
If price breaks below, be careful: the yellow line just underneath is support.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink box, expect a move toward the 4-hour range high.
The target is the 4-hour range high at 199.

Scenario B
Wait for a retracement within the current range and look for a short.
In this case, the chance will probably come once the European session starts, I think?
The target is the range low at 197,7.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the pink box, again wait to sell the rally.
If you sell off the S/R at the bottom of the box, the risk-reward may be poor, so be careful.
I think the yellow line at 197.6 will act as support, so I’m also preparing for a scenario where price fails to drop all the way and bounces.
Since this is a range, I’m assuming that even if price breaks below the box it will come back up to some extent. Target: 197.6.

Review

It was Scenario C.

Short on the retracement after the break below the pink line.
However, exit once price fails to break the yellow line and starts forming a shape that looks like it will rise. 15 pips

After that, price rises and we get a bullish shift.
You can go long from ○2, the first pullback after the bullish shift.
This long is based on the assumption that price will head for the range high once more.
Take profit on the touch of the top of the morning pink box.
Since I was originally expecting up-and-down moves within the range, and there was a data release coming up in 10 minutes, I closed out without hesitation. 58 pips