2025/07/24 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

There was a good selling opportunity around 9:30 am JST (00:30 UTC). Right now I’m waiting for a retracement.
Price has already broken below the 4-hour low once, so I’d like to catch the timing when the downward flow resumes.

Scenario A
I see 198.6 as a key level, and if price breaks above it, I’ll consider buying.
However, this assumes an upward wave has formed before then.
I think a full-fledged rise will come after price breaks above 199.
Until then I’ll treat it as movement within a range, with a target of 199

Scenario B
I think the current retracement candidate is around the pink line at 198.6.
From there, I picture price testing the low again and the downward flow strengthening.
Target is 197.6

Scenario C
A pattern where price falls without much of a retracement.
I see the blue line around 198.3 as a key level and will wait for it to act as support/resistance (S/R) and price to drop.
Target is also 197.6

Review

It was an indecisive day with no clear direction.

First, I went short at ○1 under Scenario B.
However, here you need to be aware that the lows were turning up (making higher lows), as shown by the blue arrows.
Short-term, the flow was upward, so the idea was to go short at ○1 and then see lower lows from a double top. That meant once price failed to make a new low, I’d judge that short-term buying was continuing.
When price stopped at the pink line and started to look like it was rising off support/resistance (S/R), I exited. 10 pips

After that, price broke above the high, so I looked to buy.
I could go long when price pulled back to the short-term pullback low. ○2
I took profit when price failed to break the recent high and stalled. 20 pips

Everything from the daily chart down is ranging, so you need to trade on the assumption that price probably won’t move much.