2025/07/25 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.
The current price zone is right where resistance sits, and a break above it would turn the 4-hour chart (H4) bullish as well.
For now, it’s a matter of waiting to see whether price breaks through or forms another pullback.
Scenario A
If price breaks above, wait for a pullback and look to go long.
Target is around 199.7
Scenario B
The likely pullback area is around 198.7, but I’m also allowing for the possibility that it dips as far as the pink line around 198.5.
In that case, I think it will take a little while before it turns back up.
The target is the same as Scenario A if the range breaks, but if the pullback is deep, it’s the range high around 199.
Scenario C
If price breaks below the pink line, I’ll consider selling.
Target is around 198.3
Judging by the shape of the daily chart, it feels like it might be heading up?
Review
It played out as Scenario C.
In the end, the punchline is that price just moved up and down inside a range it hasn’t been able to break since Wednesday.
If the chart doesn’t move, you can’t take pips no matter how hard you try, so there’s nothing you can do about it.
There was one opportunity: a short from the red circle, the retracement after price dropped from the range high and broke the pullback low.
Based on the 1-hour range movement, you can enter expecting a move down to the range low.
Take profit when price reaches the blue line at the range low and bounces. 28 pips
After that, seeing the strength of the rise, it’s wait and see.
The bias temporarily turns to buying, but price fell further on the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC), and the trading day ended with no further opportunity.
Also, if you’ve concluded that it’s just movement within the range, aiming for a short from the blue circle is also an option.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
