2025/07/17 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.
For day trading it’s a sell, but the 4-hour chart (H4) is a buy.
When the 1-hour chart and the 4-hour chart (H4) are moving in opposite directions, it’s easy to get whipsawed by the chart, so be careful.
Scenario A
I’m assuming the range high is 199.
If it breaks above 199, I’ll treat it as a bullish shift on the 1-hour chart.
In that case, it lines up with the daily chart and the 4-hour chart (H4), so I’d like to go long.
Target is 200.5
Scenario B
Short on turning down (making lower highs) within the range.
Target is 198.2
First, down to the range low.
Scenario C
The range low is around the blue line at 198.2.
This blue line acts as support on the 4-hour chart (H4), and if it breaks below it, I’ll judge the 4-hour chart (H4) as a sell too.
However, the 198 round number just below the blue line concerns me a bit.
I’d want to be careful there while holding a short.
Target is 197.6
Review
In the end, it didn’t drop and went up instead.
Long from ○1 on Scenario A.
I hold on with the intention of holding at least until the pink line, but right before the data release it starts forming something like a double top, so I take profit there. 28 pips
You can’t read or control the moves around a data release, so the golden rule is to go into it with no position.
After that, price comes back to the Scenario A entry point again, so you can go long once more.
It’s late at night, so you’d have to be ready to put in some overtime.
Once it has run a bit, I think you can move the stop to breakeven, set the limit just below the next line up, and leave it.
Since it was late at night it’s not counted, but 34 pips.
By the way, the blue circle is a valid long technically.
It hasn’t broken the 1-hour rally high yet, but the short-term flow is up and the risk-reward is good.
Timing-wise it was right before the data release, so I don’t think I would have taken it this time.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
