2025/07/10 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Price is currently in a price zone that might turn out to be a pullback on the 4-hour chart.
I’m expecting a small bounce for now, but if it keeps falling from here, I’ll need to rethink the strategy.

Scenario A
I see the green line at 199 as the upper limit for selling the rally.
If price breaks above it, I’ll treat it as a return to the uptrend and look to buy the dip.
Target: around 199.5

Scenario B
This is the pattern where price ranges for a while and then drops again.
The retracement may only reach about 198.8, so once it starts falling I’ll check the risk-reward before deciding whether to enter.
Target: 198.2

Scenario C
I’m not too keen on entering from the current level, but assuming the daily chart prints another bearish candle today, getting in on a small retracement is also an option.
Watch out around the blue line at 198.2, but I’d like to watch the price action closely and aim for the line below it.
Target: 197.6

Review

Price didn’t move the way I had pictured.

Going with Scenario A, I went long at the red circle, but right after that it dipped once and I thought, “Hmm?”
After that, it chopped around printing lots of comb-like candlesticks, and I sensed it might drop again.

In the end, I exited at the ✕ mark, where price broke below the line and it turned into support/resistance (S/R). -5pips

This happens a lot when the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are moving against each other.