2025/07/08 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Right now, price is at the point where it either breaks through the daily chart and weekly chart highs or it doesn’t.
My basic stance is to buy, but this is a resistance zone, so I need to watch out for a sharp drop.

Scenario A
I’m waiting for a pullback, but if price goes on to make a new high from here, I’ll buy the pullback that follows.
If it makes a new high, I’ll need to update this trade strategy.
For now, I see the pullback after the break as coming around 199.5, or around 199 at the green line.
Setting a target is a bit tricky. For now I’m looking at around 199.8, the blue line just above.
That’s a price zone that acts as weekly chart resistance, and I don’t think it will break above it that easily.

Scenario B
The pattern where price ranges for a while and then rises.
I picture it pulling back to around 198.7.
I see the bottom of the range at 198.5.
It’s easier to buy if it makes a decent pullback first.
Target is 199.8

Scenario C
If price breaks below around 198.5, I’ll look to sell for a day trade.
If it’s going to go above the weekly chart high, it would be more natural for it to rise while making a fairly large pullback.
This is a short scenario targeting that drop.
Target is 198

Review

It was a buy under Scenario B. In the end, it stayed in the range.

The first entry was a long from the left red circle, where the price showed short-term downside stalling.
Since it started turning down around 199.4, the recent high, I took profit out of caution about a drop from a double top. 20 pips

After that, the price made a new low, so I waited and saw, wary of further downside.
Once the New York session started, it made a new high again and turned upward, so I went long from the second red circle, which was the pullback that followed.
After the entry, once I saw it climbing in waves, I placed a limit order at the range high of 199.4 and went to bed. 35 pips