2025/07/01 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart and higher timeframes are in an uptrend. The 4-hour is mixed, with buying and selling pressure both in play.
The 1-hour is bearish, so the day-trading plan is to sell, but there’s a high chance price rallies at some point and turns into a buy.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink line around 197.7, I switch to a bullish bias.
Trends change starting from the lower timeframes. If price rises from the current shape, a higher-low double bottom will form on the 1-hour and 4-hour, so it’s fine to go long.
Target: 198.5

Scenario B
Until price breaks above 197.7, I’ll look to sell.
The plan is to wait for price to turn down (making lower highs) near the range high, then go short.
However, at the 5-minute level the current chart shape already suggests buying is fine.
(For scalping, this is a buying setup)
That momentum could carry price through the range, so be careful that the short doesn’t turn into short-term countertrend trading.
Target: around 197

Scenario C
Even after a break to the downside, I’ll look to sell the rally, but I want to go in aware that this price zone is a support zone on the daily chart.
Plenty of traders will be buying until price breaks below the line around 196.8, so I’ll exit if I see signs of a rise such as higher lows.
Target: 196.8

Review

No trade.
There was no real retracement to speak of, so there was nowhere to enter.

Technically, a long from the red circle was possible, but the time of day made it difficult.