2025/06/24 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

My bias is basically bullish, but the key question is whether price puts in a pullback first.
If you think it will keep rising from here, buying around the current price is an option, but it’s turning down (making lower highs), so it’s hard to get involved.
This is a typical move after a sharp rally.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break to the upside.
There are no sell factors, so it’s simply a matter of following along with longs.
Target is around 199

Scenario B
This scenario is to buy if price finds support around 197.2.
I didn’t have a horizontal line drawn at this price zone in advance, and the blue line at 195.9 just below is an obvious support, so it might be fine to wait until price gets there before buying.
Target is 198.2, and around 199 if it breaks above that

Scenario C
A scenario to take the short-term drop down to the pullback.
Target is around 195.8–195.9.

Review

At first I went short based on Scenario C, but price didn’t fall all the way and bounced back, so I took a breakeven exit.
This was a dip within an overall rise, and it’s a tricky price zone, so you have to adapt flexibly.
If that feels like too much hassle, it’s better to leave it alone until price breaks out one way or the other.

After that, price rose, so I judged it might be heading up and went long from the second red circle, which was a pullback.
Here too, price turned down (making lower highs) and dropped, so it was another breakeven exit.

After that, I judged the market had no momentum and finished the day in wait-and-see mode.
On days like this, the important thing is not to get hurt.