2025/07/03 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Since yesterday the downward flow has become clear, but in the short term price is rising.
Once this short-term rise turns down, I’m looking to sell. Keep in mind that price is still in the daily chart support zone.

Scenario A
I see the current range high at around 196.3.
If price breaks above that area, I’ll consider buying.
This is basically a buy aiming for a retracement within a downtrend, so I won’t chase it.
Target is 196.8

Scenario B
If price comes back up to the range high, the strategy is to sell from the high.
The current chart also looks like it may be about to turn down, so there’s a good chance price won’t make it back up to the range high.
Looking more closely, another possible scenario is that after turning down (making lower highs), price retraces to around 195.8–196 and then falls.
Target is 194.1

Scenario C
Aiming to sell the rally after a break below.
This is the point where every timeframe from the daily chart down turns into a sell.
After the break, price may fall with almost no retracement, so I want to watch it closely.
Target is 194.1

Review

Scenario A: buy.

I went long at the red circle, where price broke above the range high, came back down and made an S/R flip bounce.
That said, the time of day wasn’t ideal.
Closed out before NFP (nonfarm payrolls). 18pips

In this morning’s strategy I was looking to sell, but since price was rising in the short term, aiming for a long around the blue circle, where it was making higher lows, would also have been a valid strategy.
I was leaning a little too heavily on my bearish bias.