2025/07/04 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Right now, for day trading, this is a spot to look for sells.
However, both the daily chart and the 4-hour chart are in uptrends, so the key point is where the pullback ends and the price starts rising again.

Scenario A
A pattern where the price rises again after a shallow pullback.
I don’t feel this is very likely.
Without a decent pullback, the upward momentum will be weak anyway.
Target is 198.2

Scenario B
The price is currently falling in the short term, so I’ll look at selling the rally.
Target is around 197–196.8

Scenario C
If the price breaks below the blue line at 196.8, I’ll picture it heading for the daily chart low once again.
However, there are many lines that could act as support, and the overall environment is an uptrend, so I’ll stay cautious the whole time.

Basically, it’s better to ride the overall buying flow, so I think it’s fine to just wait for the downward move to reverse.
In that case, I guess the real play will come early next week.

Review

No trade.

If you were trading more actively, you could have shorted at the two red circles early on.
The first red circle is a spot you could arguably call Scenario B.
The other one is the second red circle, the retracement after price made another new low.
If you had entered from the first red circle, you could have taken around 50 pips.

After that, price bounced from just below 197, which I had written as the target.

You could go long from the third red circle on the pullback after the bounce.
That’s how it looks technically, but I wouldn’t trade from this time of day heading into the weekend.