2025/07/15 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The market context has barely changed from yesterday.
The room to run is gradually narrowing, and the question is whether price breaks support or bounces off it.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the current tight range, another move up becomes possible.
That said, I don’t want to rush in; I’d rather wait patiently for a pullback.
Given the shape of the 4-hour chart (H4), a sharp rally all at once seems unlikely, so it’s not too late to get in even after a reversal wave up forms on the 4-hour chart (H4).
Target is 199

Scenario B
At the day-trading level, sellers have the upper hand in the current range.
If price starts turning down (making lower highs) from the range high, I’ll sell.
However, the range is narrow, so I don’t think there’s any need to force this trade.
The target is also just the range low at 198.3

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
The daily chart MA is getting quite close, so this isn’t the time to get greedy chasing shorts.
Target is 197.6

Review

It was Scenario A, buy.

In the end, price rose without breaking support.
The only opportunity was the long from ○1, the pullback after the narrow morning range broke.
Take profit at the target. 36 pips
This was the perfect timing to close out ahead of the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).

After that comes a scenario update, and once the move on the data settled down, there was a second entry point.
It’s the long from ○2, the pullback after the uptrend became clear.
I take profit where a double top forms at the next line up. 32 pips
You could hold, but it depends on your trading policy, i.e. whether you hold positions overnight.