2025/07/28 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

I’m still expecting price to move within the 198.2–199 range.
Within that range, price is currently rising from the range low, so I’m looking to go long on a pullback.

Scenario A
A pullback after a break to the upside.
That said, this isn’t a trending market, so the idea is to identify the pullback carefully and only enter after seeing a reversal on the lower timeframe.
Target is 199

Scenario B
A pattern where I wait for price to drop first and then rise.
I’m watching either of the two pink lines as candidate reversal levels.
Target is also 199

Scenario C
On the 15-minute chart (M15), a break below the lower pink line at 198.4 would be a bearish shift.
However, the range low on the 1-hour chart (H1) is the blue line below that, so I’ll look to sell on a break below the blue line.
Target is 197.6

It’s been ranging the whole time, but a range always breaks down into a trend eventually, so all I can do is wait patiently.

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

After the morning scenario was set, price dropped once to around the pink line, but since it was falling in the short term, I wait for a reversal.
The first chance is ○1, the pullback after the decline stalls and price makes a new high once.
Take profit when it reaches the 199 target and starts turning down. 45 pips

After that, a long is possible from ○2, where it becomes Scenario A.
However, since it can’t break above 199, I assume it will return to the range and make a breakeven exit.