2025/07/29 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Still ranging. On the bigger picture, price is moving in a 197.6–199.8 range.
It’s better to either trade from the edges of the range or look at other currencies.
For day trading, I’m currently on the sell side.

Scenario A
On the 1-hour chart, I’ll look to buy if price breaks above the pink line at 198.4.
I expect it to head for the range high again, but the green line at 199 has been holding consistently lately, so the target is 199 for now.

Scenario B
Price is currently falling, but I see the near-term retracement topping out around the blue line.
Since it failed to break the green line and came back down, I think it may drop to the range low at 197.6 for now.
Ideally, there would be one more retracement before that drop begins.
Target: 197.6

Scenario C
If it falls without a retracement, I’ll still just wait for it to retrace at some point.
This is a selling-the-rally strategy, so I always wait for a retracement.
If it falls without retracing, I’ll aim for the next opportunity.

Review

It was Scenario C.

Early on, I waited for a retracement, but price just kept falling, so I went short from ○1, which was the Scenario C setup for selling the rally.
I was looking at the pink line area as the target, so the risk-reward wasn’t great, and since it wasn’t a 1-hour sell-the-rally setup, this was a spot to treat it as a short-term trade and go for it.
I took profit where price bounced off the pink line. 13 pips

After that, there was a short-term bullish shift.
Price retraced up to the 1-hour rally high, so after confirming it was rejected multiple times and couldn’t break above the pink line, I went short from the upper edge. ○2
This one also bounced at the recent low, so I took profit. 35 pips