2025/08/20 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Looking at the daily chart, this is a market that’s hard to get motivated about.
For day trading I’m leaning toward selling, but the support around 147.5 at the green line is holding.
I think it’s better to wait until price breaks out either up or down before getting in.

Scenario A
Go long on a pullback after price breaks above the pink line just overhead.
The 1-hour chart (H1) has already formed a double bottom right at the green line, so this is a buy anticipating a rise from there.
Target is 147.8

Scenario B
Since I’m leaning toward selling for now, this is a short from around the pink line.
However, the green line support is strong, so I think it’s better not to force this one.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the green line, I’ll see that as the decline continuing.
The idea is a move down into the next range lower, with a target of 147.2

Review

It was Scenario C.

This is the retracement after price broke below the green line and dropped to the blue line, which I had named as the target for Scenario C.
I was watching to see whether there might be an S/R flip around the green line, but in the end price retraced all the way up to the rally high.
I went short once it started turning down around the pink line at the rally high.

Since price had already reached the blue line once, I held for a while on the assumption that it might go one leg lower, but I took profit after seeing a long lower wick at the round number below the blue line and a double bottom on the lower timeframe. 55 pips