2025/08/21 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The 1-hour chart is pointing down, while the 15-minute chart is a buy.
In the short term this is a spot to buy from below, but the strategy is to prioritize the 1-hour trend and sell from above.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the green line at 147.5, I’ll consider it a buy for now.
However, on both the daily and 4-hour charts the price range is narrowing and we’re in consolidation.
This isn’t a spot where I want to buy aggressively.
If buying, the target is 147.9

Scenario B
A scenario of selling from the current range high.
In the short term, this is a range where you should be buying.
Be careful not to sell from an in-between level and get whipsawed.
The target is 146.7

Scenario C
A break below the blue line around 147.2 would also weaken the 15-minute uptrend.
I’ll look to short on a retracement.
However, the recent low can also be seen as 147, so if price fails to make a new low and rises, I’ll exit.
The target is 146.7

Review

It was Scenario A.

Price kept rising, following the 15-minute buying flow.
After being stopped at the green line several times, it made an S/R flip bounce, so it was an easy setup to buy.

I was wary of the pink line just above, but price rose right away, so I held and took profit when it reached the 147.9 target. 30 pips
After that, I’m waiting and seeing because of the economic data release.