2025/08/15 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Yesterday’s rally has made things harder to trade.
I think the bias is up on both the 4-hour and the 1-hour.
However, the 15-minute is moving down, so for now the strategy is to ride the decline that forms the pullback.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the green line at 147.5, I’ll have a bullish bias.
However, we’re inside the 4-hour range, so there’s a high chance price wobbles up and down.
The market context doesn’t call for jumping in hastily, so I’ll go long after confirming the price is holding firm.
Target is 148.1

Scenario B
For now, I see the green line as the retracement target.
That said, it isn’t a clear support/resistance (S/R) level, so the basis is weak.
The idea is to short if price reacts at the green line and gets capped there.
Target is around the pink line at 146.8.
However, watch out for the recent low that forms as price retraces back up to the green line.
It’s possible price forms a double bottom at the recent low and turns higher.
After all, the 1-hour and 4-hour can be said to have a bullish bias.

Scenario C
This scenario is to short from the short-term S/R at the blue line in the current price zone.
It depends on how the chart shapes up.
I think there will also be upward pressure from around these prices, so I don’t think there’s any need to force this one.
We’re right in the middle of the range, in a market context where either direction is possible.

It feels like price will struggle to move either way, and there’s a high chance it stays in consolidation, so I think it’s fine to just close the charts for today and take a break.
There’s a data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).
If it gets things moving, there might be an opportunity?

Review

It was Scenario C.

After the break below the blue line, this is a short from a situation where price was clearly being capped by the line.
Entering anywhere near the line around the red circles would have been fine.
Take profit where it bounces off the next pink line below. 30 pips

As I wrote this morning, this is a price level where buying pressure picks up, so close out as soon as there’s any sign of a reversal.