2025/08/28 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

After the big drop on Aug 22, price made a retracement and has now turned back down.
That said, nothing has changed on the daily chart, and we’re still in a narrow range.
No rush. I’ll wait for a retracement and look to short.

Scenario A
I see the green line at 147.5 as the upper limit of the retracement.
If price breaks above it, I’ll switch to buying.
However, the pink line just above will also act as resistance, so I’ll wait and see a bit and let a wave form before considering a buy.
If price breaks above the green line, I’ll rebuild my strategy.

Scenario B
Price is starting to break below a little right now, but in this pattern it comes back into the range once more and then heads lower.
Target is 146.7

Scenario C
We’re still in a range, so even if price breaks below, I’ll wait for it to come back.
It depends on how far it drops before coming back, but once the rise on the lower timeframes breaks down, I’ll go short.
Target is also 146.7

Review

It played out as Scenario C.

The break below was shallow, so I waited for a retracement before going short, entering at the red circle.
Price came close to the target, but I took profit before the data release. 42pips

I had already captured a decent amount of room to run, so holding and waiting to see would have been fine too.
If you held, the subsequent drop reached the target.

If you are swing trading, holding through data releases is the default.
I think you should take risk when it makes sense to, judging everything together, such as the shape of the chart at that point and where the technical key levels are.