2025/08/27 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

On the bigger picture, we’re in a 147.1–147.9 range.
Price is currently near the range high, and the question is whether it breaks above it or makes another pullback first.
Either way, it’s a matter of waiting for the right timing.

Scenario A
If price breaks through the range high, I’ll wait for a pullback and then go long.
I’m expecting support/resistance (S/R) around the pink line at 147.9, but I think it could also dip a bit deeper, drop to around B, and then rise.
Target: 148.5

Scenario B
The pattern where price pulls back first and then rises.
In that case, I’ll wait for the decline to stop somewhere between the pink line at B (147.6) and the pink zone below.
Target: the range high at 147.9

Scenario C
For now, I’m thinking of selling if price breaks below the green line at 147.5, but I think the chart will have changed by the time it falls that far.
I’ll have to judge it as things develop, but for now I’m considering a short on a break of the green line.
Target: the range low at 147.1

Review

It was Scenario A?

You could read it as either Scenario A or Scenario B, but it was the move I had anticipated.
That said, the entry was a bit of a tricky setup.
When price is turning up (making higher lows) in a V-shaped reversal, it’s tough unless you rely on horizontal levels and support/resistance (S/R).
As marked on the chart, this is a price zone that acts as S/R, so I wait with the idea that price will reverse and rise from around here, but where you can actually enter is the red circle.

This is the timing where the 1-hour chart also has a bullish candle close, and price is turning up (making higher lows) relative to the starting point of the reversal rise on the 15-minute chart.

Since price breaks out above the range, I hold, but it starts turning down (making lower highs) at the blue line, so I exit. 26pips