2025/09/01 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Basically I’m looking to buy, but price is near the range high right now, so I’d either wait for a pullback or wait until it breaks above.
Strictly speaking, the 1-hour chart (H1) is in a downtrend, and price is currently at the rally high.

Scenario A
A scenario where price breaks out of the range for a bullish shift.
I see line A as the range high, but I’m a bit wary of the green line above it.
That said, even if price breaks above here, the 4-hour chart is still in a range, so I think it’s fine to wait for a proper pullback to form before buying.
Near-term target 147.6, ideally 148.1

Scenario B
I see the blue line around 147.1 as the pullback candidate.
A reversal higher from around here would make for a clean chart.
The target is the same as Scenario A, but before that, the question is whether it breaks out of the range.

Scenario C
If price breaks below 147.1, I’ll consider selling the rally.
In this case the 1-hour chart (H1) is also ranging, so I’d like to sell from as high as possible.
For now, the target is around the pink line at 146.7

Review

No trade
The first red circle is the Scenario C entry point, but the sharp reversal makes it hard to get in.
Entering while accepting the risk is also fine.

After that, price doesn’t fully drop and rises again, so that trade would be an exit with a small profit.

Price then breaks above the high, so I switch to a bullish bias. If I were to trade it, it would probably be a long from the second red circle.
Since the higher timeframe is in a range, I feel there’s no need to force it.